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This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out

NYT New York Times November 2023 (inltv.co.uk)

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 Give peace a chance

Give peace a chance 

Right now, nuclear war is just a hypothetical scenario run by Princeton University. Let's hope it doesn't ever become reality.

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 With Out Blame

John Lennon and Yoko Ono 

With Out Blame
John Lennon and Yoko Ono in bed for peace 
Lennon married the Japanese avant-garde artist Yoko Ono in March 1969
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With Out Blame

Without Blame the words of the song

From the streets of Gaza
From the streets of Gaza To the islands of Indonesia
From the heart of the Congo To New Orleans
It's the same endless sky looking down on you and I ....
Without Blame ... 
 
Here we are once again wondering how its gonna be ... 
The same old words ... 
it's all been heard ...
History's a blur when you want it to be ..
From the shores of Burma ... 
to the borders of Mexico ..
From the plains in Darfur..
... black is night ...
It's the same endless sky looking down on you Without Blame..
Here we are once again ... wondering how its gonna be ..the same old words..
it's all been heard...
history's a blur when you want it to be....
Doesn't anyone else see this?
Doesn't anyone else feel this?
In our bones so long now we breath this..
War onto ourselves ...
Here we are...
Doesn't anyone else see this?
Doesn't any one else feel this?
In our bones so long we breath this..
History's a blur..
 when you want it to be....
For food ...  for water ...
For land ... for power...
For gods for oil will be our day..
Until we meet eye to eye ...
Under the same endless sky ...
Without Blame ..
 
It's the same endless sky looking down on you Without Blame..

- Amber Darland

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BBC News Nov 4, 2023

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out Story by Zeleb.es 

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out (msn.com)

 

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out Story by Zeleb.es  

Third World War

This warning brought back old fears about atomic warfare: What cities would be attacked in such a conflict? How many victims? What would a nuclear war look like?

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out (msn.com)

Dragged into a world war

Dragged into a world war

The scenario would involve many countries in the conflict, mainly those where NATO has military bases

  Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953

Ukraine war: Zelensky says Israel-Gaza conflict taking focus away from fighting Nov 4, 2023

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67321777?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: 4 November 2023

President Zelensky rejected suggestions that fighting in Ukraine had reached a stalemate

By Jaroslav Lukiv BBC News  Russia-Ukraine war 

The Israel-Gaza war is "taking away the focus" from the conflict in Ukraine, the country's President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted.

He said this was "one of the goals" of Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And he denied that fighting in Ukraine had reached a stalemate, despite a recent assessment to this effect by the country's top military general. Ukraine's counter-offensive in the south has so far made little headway. This has prompted fears of war fatigue among Kyiv's Western allies, with suggestions of growing reluctance in some capitals to continue giving Ukraine advanced weapons and funds.

 Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

Ukraine's Crimea attacks seen as key to counter-offensive against Russia   Russia-Ukraine war

  • Published 2023
  • Ukraine's Crimea attacks seen as key to counter-offensive against Russia - BBC News
  • Smoke rises from a shipyard in the Russian-held Crimean port of Sevastopol

Ukraine war: Why Kyiv's Dnipro east bank gain could be significant

  • Published Russia-Ukraine war 
  • Ukrainian servicemen install a 'Skif' anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system at an undisclosed location in the Zaporizhzhia region
  • https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/286D/production/_131494301_ukrainewar.jpg.webp
  • By Jenny Hill BBC News, Ukraine
    By Jenny Hill BBC News, Ukraine

    Ukrainian fighters on the frontline say troops have not only crossed into Russian occupied territory but held a position, apparently for the first time, on the fiercely defended east (or left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region.

    The development is potentially significant. Ukraine's counteroffensive aims to slice through Russian occupied territory, severing a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula which Moscow annexed - illegally - in 2014.

    In a text exchange, the 46th brigade told the BBC that troops were engaged in heavy fighting as they try to take full control of the village of Krynky.

 Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia Published 

Location of Russia's Black Sea fleet HQ in Sevastopol

Ukraine has been widening the breach in Russia's defences in the southern Zaporizhzhia region as its counter-offensive continues to make slow progress against Moscow's forces.

Here are the latest developments:

  • Ukraine has brought heavy equipment beyond Russia's first line of defences in the Zaporizhzhia region for the first time, analysts say
  • It has also made advances around Bakhmut after Russia moved some of its most experienced troops from the city to the Zaporizhzhia region
  • Meanwhile, Russia has maintained drone attacks on Ukraine's River Danube ports, damaging the country's grain export infrastructure
  •  Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

Ukraine war: Kyiv troop build-up reported across Dnipro river Published 

Armed Ukrainian soldiers. Photo: October 2023

Ukraine's military appears to have confirmed reports that its troops have crossed on to the Russian-occupied left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.

The armed forces general staff listed Pishchanivka village in the southern Kherson region, 3km (two miles) east of the river, as being shelled by Russia. The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 4km east of the river. Russia's Vladimir Putin insisted that Ukraine's operation was failing. Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in the south in June, seeking to sever Russia's land corridor to the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. Kyiv aims to reach the Sea of Azov coast, splitting Russian troops in the region in two, and making the Kremlin's supply lines more complicated. The counteroffensive has so far been slow, bringing only limited territorial gains.  Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

 

Ukraine war: Why Kyiv's Dnipro east bank gain could be significant

Ukrainian fighters on the frontline say troops have not only crossed into Russian occupied territory but held a position, apparently for the first time, on the fiercely defended east (or left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region.

The development is potentially significant. Ukraine's counteroffensive aims to slice through Russian occupied territory, severing a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula which Moscow annexed - illegally - in 2014.  Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

Biden seeks 'vital' war aid for Israel and Ukraine

Biden: Abandoning Israel and Ukraine 'not worth it'

US President Joe Biden has said world history is at "an inflection point" as he made the case for billions of dollars in wartime aid for Ukraine and Israel.

In a speech at the White House, he said Hamas and Russia both wanted to "annihilate a neighbouring democracy".

Mr Biden said he would send an urgent funding request - expected to be $105bn (£87bn) - to Congress on Friday.

 Full Story further down this www inltv.co.uk webpage

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Copyright Notice

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out Story by Zeleb.es 

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out (msn.com)

 

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out Story by Zeleb.es  

Third World War

This warning brought back old fears about atomic warfare: What cities would be attacked in such a conflict? How many victims? What would a nuclear war look like?

This simulation reveals how a US-Russia nuclear war would play out (msn.com)

Dragged into a world war

Dragged into a world war

The scenario would involve many countries in the conflict, mainly those where NATO has military bases

First strike: 2,6 million casualties

First strike: 2,6 million casualties©Provided by The Daily Digest

According to the Princeton simulation, Russia would attack first with approximately 300 nuclear warheads and short-range missiles, striking NATO bases and troops. NATO would respond with around 180 warheads carried by aircraft over Russian objectives. Casualties? 2.6 million in the span of three hours.

Image: Screencap from the Princeton University simulation.

Second strike: 3.4 million casualties

Second strike: 3.4 million casualties

With Europe in ruins, NATO launches 600 warheads from US soil and submarine-based missiles aimed at Russian nuclear forces. Russia counterattacks with missiles launched from silos, submarines, and road-mobile vehicles. This conflict continuation would last only 45 minutes and have a toll of up to 3.4 million victims.

Image: Screencap from the Princeton University simulation.

Third step: Total annhiliation

Third step: Total annhiliation

NATO and Russia, following the scenario elaborated by Princeton University, would launch attacks on important economic and population centers to hamper the other side's recovery. Five to ten nuclear warheads would be used for each city. Thermonuclear warfare would kill 85.3 million people in 45 minutes.

Image: Screencap from the Princeton University simulation.

Death toll: 34.1 million

Death toll: 34.1 million

The study estimates that, in total, a nuclear war would immediately affect 91.5 million people, which would cause 34.1 million deaths and 57.4 million wounded within the first four or five hours.

Repeating Hiroshima

Repeating Hiroshima©Provided by The Daily Digest

The landscape after the conflict would be something like that: Hiroshima in 1945, when an atomic bomb dropped by the United States leveled an entire city. Over 800,000 people died and some 70,000 were wounded. Those affected by radiation would raise the death toll over the following years.

From KGB agent to Russian president

Strike first, strike hard©Provided by The Daily Digest

The Princeton University simulation started off from the idea that, in a conflict between Russia and the United States, Moscow would strike with nuclear weapons first.

Either way, the result is the same

Either way, the result is the same©Provided by The Daily Digest

If the United States is the first to start a nuclear strike, the result would be more or less the same. The scenario presented is based on how the NATO defensive strategy is thought out in case of Russian aggression.

North Carolina - James Goodnight

A clockwork war

There really isn't much that can be done during a nuclear war: Everything is programmed and there's virtually no time to stop Armageddon.

The greatness of the Soviet Empire

Also known as 'MAD'

The fragile principle that held together peace during the Cold War between the United States and Russia was Mutual Assured Destruction, also known as MAD. The idea was that no side would dare to push the button since nobody would win.

1 + 1 = 0

1 + 1 = 0©Provided by The Daily Digest

The phrase is attributed to nuclear scientist John von Neumann, seeing here receiving the Freedom Medal from President Eisenhower in 1956. The German-born scientist translated the idea into mathematic terms as 1 + 1 = 0.

Right after the missile crisis

The Doomsday Machine©Provided by The Daily Digest

Film buffs might remember The Doomsday Machine from 'Dr. Strangelove', a Soviet supercomputer that would automatically start a nuclear strike in case the US started a nuclear war. A 2009 piece by NPR reveals that such a system was real and that it was still functioning.

WarGames

WarGames

A relatively more recent example was the 1983 John Badham movie 'WarGames'. The premise rests on the tension on how to stop a military supercomputer once it has started to run its attack protocol.

'The only winning move is not to play'

'The only winning move is not to play'

'WarGames' spoilers ahead: The supercomputer programmed to start the nuclear war plays tic-tac-toe against itself and figures out that nobody can win a game like that.

Life's not a Hollywood movie

Life's not a Hollywood movie

However, life isn't a Hollywood movie, especially when it comes to war. When a conflict begins, it's hard to say how it will end. Just look at recent cases in Iraq or Afghanistan.

United States: nuclear tests

Atomic nightmare

The threat of the nuclear apocalypse loomed over the 1980s. Is the world regressing to this scenario? Will humanity go from a global pandemic to a new world war?

Give peace a chance

Give peace a chance
Right now, nuclear war is just a hypothetical scenario run by Princeton University. Let's hope it doesn't ever become reality.
 
By Jaroslav Lukiv  BBC News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: 4 November 2023
President Zelensky rejected suggestions that fighting in Ukraine had reached a stalemate

The Israel-Gaza war is "taking away the focus" from the conflict in Ukraine, the country's President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted.

He said this was "one of the goals" of Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

And he denied that fighting in Ukraine had reached a stalemate, despite a recent assessment to this effect by the country's top military general.

Ukraine's counter-offensive in the south has so far made little headway. 

This has prompted fears of war fatigue among Kyiv's Western allies, with suggestions of growing reluctance in some capitals to continue giving Ukraine advanced weapons and funds.

In a separate development on Saturday, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that Ukrainian soldiers from 128th Mountain Assault Brigade "Zakarpattia (Transcarpathia)" were killed, ordering a "full investigation in what he described as a "tragedy". 

He did not say how many soldiers died in what Ukraine's military said was a Russian missile strike in the southern Zaporizhzhia region on Friday.

Reports in Ukrainian media and among Russian military bloggers earlier said more than 20 Ukrainian service personnel were killed during an award ceremony in a village close to the front lines.

Ukraine's military also said that on Saturday it successfully hit "sea and port infrastructure" of a shipbuilding plant in Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

Russia's defence ministry was later quoted by the country's state-run news agencies as saying that 13 out of 15 Ukrainian missiles fired on the plant in the city of Kerch, eastern Crimea, were shot down, but a Russian ship was damaged.

Speaking at Saturday's briefing in Kyiv with visiting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Mr Zelensky said: "It's clear that the war in the Middle East is taking away the focus" from Ukraine.

He said Russia wanted this focus to be "weakened", but stressed that "everything is in our powers".

Mr Zelensky was also asked to comment on this week's assessment by Ukraine's chief military commander Valery Zaluzhny that the war was now moving to a "positional" or static stage, and this would benefit Moscow by "allowing it to rebuild its military power".

"Everyone is getting tired and there are different opinions," Mr Zelensky replied, adding: "But this is not a stalemate."

He admitted that Russia was "controlling the skies" and that Ukraine urgently needed US-made F-16 warplanes and advanced anti-aircraft defences to change the situation.

The Ukrainian leader recalled that last year, there had also been a lot of talk about a stalemate on the vast battlefield in Ukraine - but he pointed to Kyiv's subsequent major military victories in the north-eastern Kharkiv region and Kherson in the south.

A man walks with his bicycle in front of bombed-out residential buildings in Avdiivka, eastern Ukraine. Photo: October 2023

 https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A7E5/production/_131618924_3ea1bcc4b5be0592c6a5fff80565e5bd4a69d3ab-1.jpg.webp

Russia has in recent weeks been trying to advance in eastern Ukraine, with heavy shelling of the key town of Avdiivka

Mr Zelensky also rejected media reports that he was coming under growing pressure to consider negotiations with Russia.

"Today, no-one among EU, US leaders and others - our partners - is putting pressure for us to now sit down to negotiate with Russia, and give away something to it. This will not happen."

 

Moscow on Thursday also commented on Mr Zaluzhny's assessment, with Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman saying the current battlefield situation was not a "stalemate".

"All the [war] goals that were set must be achieved," Dmitry Peskov said, adding that Ukraine must realise that "even talking about any prospects for the Kyiv regime's victory on the battlefield is absurd".

President Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine's counter-offensive had failed, while his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said this week that Kyiv was losing the war despite supplies of new weapons from Nato allies.

Meanwhile, the UK defence intelligence said in its latest report on Saturday that Russia "has likely lost around 200 armoured vehicles during its assaults on the Donbas town of Avdiivka" in eastern Ukraine.

"It is plausible that Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023.

"Russia's leadership continues to demonstrate a willingness to accept heavy personnel losses for marginal territorial gains," the report said.

Moscow has in recent weeks been trying to advance in eastern and north-eastern Ukraine - but Ukraine's military says all the attacks have been rebuffed.

The claims by the two warring sides have not been independently verified.

Map of eastern and southern Ukraine

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/5E9B/production/_131591242_ukraine_invasion_east_map-2x-nc.png.webp

Ukraine war: Why Kyiv's Dnipro east bank gain could be significant

  • Published Russia-Ukraine war 
  • Ukrainian servicemen install a 'Skif' anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system at an undisclosed location in the Zaporizhzhia region
  • https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/286D/production/_131494301_ukrainewar.jpg.webp
  • By Jenny Hill BBC News, Ukraine

    Ukrainian fighters on the frontline say troops have not only crossed into Russian occupied territory but held a position, apparently for the first time, on the fiercely defended east (or left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region.

    The development is potentially significant. Ukraine's counteroffensive aims to slice through Russian occupied territory, severing a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula which Moscow annexed - illegally - in 2014.

    In a text exchange, the 46th brigade told the BBC that troops were engaged in heavy fighting as they try to take full control of the village of Krynky.

    If successful, the force said, the settlement would give advanced units a base from which to launch a larger offensive aimed at dividing Russian troops and cutting off their supply lines.

    The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukrainian forces were continuing larger than usual ground operations on the east bank and Russian military bloggers have also noted fighting in Krynky.

    And the action is being closely scrutinised - success here would be seized upon by Ukraine's military chiefs. Their counteroffensive, launched in June, has made slow progress, with limited territorial gains.

    But the fighters we spoke to acknowledged that, even if the troops were to take Krynky, a modern day "Normandy landings" style attack was unlikely.

    And they gave us a glimpse of the dangers and challenges they face, particularly as winter approaches.

    The 46th brigade is fighting further along the vast frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region with the same aim in mind - to cut off Russian access to the Crimean peninsula.

    They told us they had just managed to partially breach the first line of Russian defence near the village of Verbove - and that they'd successfully targeted some ammunition depots and bases, but that progress was limited.

    They described heavily mined Russian fortifications and daily air attacks on their logistics routes without, they complained, air support of their own.

    Russian troops, they said, had been on the defensive but were now on the attack.

    And, as winter approaches, conditions are deteriorating - for both sides.

    Rainy weather is affecting the work of drones, reconnaissance equipment and aviation, the soldiers said. But they did not anticipate any let-up in the fighting.

    "Winter will not be a time for respite," they said.

    Additional reporting by Anastasiia Levchenko

     

    Ukraine war: Kyiv troop build-up reported across Dnipro river  Russia-Ukraine war

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67058953 By Jaroslav Lukiv BBC News

    Armed Ukrainian soldiers. Photo: October 2023
  •  
 Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in the south in June - but the advance has been slow so far

Ukraine's military appears to have confirmed reports that its troops have crossed on to the Russian-occupied left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.

The armed forces general staff listed Pishchanivka village in the southern Kherson region, 3km (two miles) east of the river, as being shelled by Russia.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 4km east of the river.

Russia's Vladimir Putin insisted that Ukraine's operation was failing.

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in the south in June, seeking to sever Russia's land corridor to the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.

Kyiv aims to reach the Sea of Azov coast, splitting Russian troops in the region in two, and making the Kremlin's supply lines more complicated.

The counteroffensive has so far been slow, bringing only limited territorial gains.

Ukrainian troops have made a number of smaller raids across the Dnipro river before - but the latest reported advance appears to be an attempt to expand the area under their control in anticipation of a larger offensive cross-river operation.

In its report on Thursday morning, the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine said Russia had carried out air strikes on Pishchanivka in the past 24 hours.

It provided no details on whether there were any Ukrainian troops in or near the village.

Hours earlier, the ISW quoted Russian sources as claiming that "likely company-sized elements of two Ukrainian naval infantry brigades conducted an assault across the Dnipro River on to the east bank" on 17-18 October.

"Geolocated footage published on 18 October indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Pishchanivka (14km east of Kherson City and 3km from the Dnipro River) and into [the village of] Poyma (11km east of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River)," the US-based think tank added.

Russian military blogger WarGonzo claimed on Thursday that the Ukrainian units fighting on the eastern bank of Ukraine's main river had been previously trained in the UK.

Meanwhile, the Russian defence ministry appeared to have confirmed Ukrainian operations in the area.

In its report on Wednesday evening, it said Russian troops had "suppressed the activity" of four Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Poyma and the nearby village of Pidstepne.

Moscow claims that, overall, Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kherson region is failing.

"There is no result yet. There are [Ukrainian] losses," said President Putin during a visit to China on Wednesday.

In other key developments:

  • Three people were wounded in Russian shelling of Kherson on Thursday, local officials say
  • Five people have been confirmed dead in the southern city of In Zaporizhzhia in a Russian attack on Wednesday
  • Further blasts have been reported in Zaporizhzhia and the central city of Dnipro after Russian air strikes. It is not clear whether there are any casualties

Map of southern Ukraine

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/15A0B/production/_131478588_ukraine_zaporizhzhia_nuclear_map_640-2x-nc.png.webp

More on this story

  • Ukraine uses US long-range missiles for the first time  Published 17 October 

    Ukrainian servicemen of the 108th Separate Brigade of Territorial Defence fire small multiple launch rocket systems toward Russian troops near a front line in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine August 19, 2023.
  • Has Ukraine broken through the dragon's teeth?  Published 18 September, 2023 

    Counter offensive index
  • War in maps: Ukraine widening Russia defences breach Published 29 September , 2023 

    Index promo Sep 23
  • Russia attacks east Ukraine stronghold of Avdiivka Published 12 October , 2023

    Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

    Ukraine has been widening the breach in Russia's defences in the southern Zaporizhzhia region as its counter-offensive continues to make slow progress against Moscow's forces.

    Here are the latest developments:

    • Ukraine has brought heavy equipment beyond Russia's first line of defences in the Zaporizhzhia region for the first time, analysts say
    • It has also made advances around Bakhmut after Russia moved some of its most experienced troops from the city to the Zaporizhzhia region
    • Meanwhile, Russia has maintained drone attacks on Ukraine's River Danube ports, damaging the country's grain export infrastructure

    Ukraine's armoured vehicles advance

    Ukrainian forces have been widening their breach of Russian defensive lines near the village of Robotyne for several weeks and analysts say they may be preparing for a new push.

    The tiny village, some 56km (35 miles) south-east of the city of Zaporizhzhia, has been a focal point since Ukraine's counter-offensive began at the start of June.

    Progress has been slow but analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say they have confirmed that Ukrainian forces are operating armoured vehicles beyond the Russian anti-tank ditch and dragon's teeth obstacles in the area for the first time - just to the west of nearby Verbove.

    Before and after map showing Russian and Ukrainian positions on 4 June and 21 September which shows how Ukraine has advanced around Robotyne

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/CABF/production/_131230915_before_and_after_around_robotyne_640-2x-nc.png.webp

The ISW describes this as an "important sign of progress" but adds it is not prepared to say that Ukraine has broken through as its forces have not breached the last visible defensive positions.

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says this is the most strategically important part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and, if it is successful, could cut off Russia's supply lines that connect the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don to Crimea.

Doing so would make it all but impossible for Russia to maintain its huge garrison in Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, he adds.

However, the advance so far has been restricted to the area around Robotyne and Ukrainian forces have a long way to go if they are to achieve this aim by reaching the Sea of Azov.

Map showing the south of Ukraine and how far Ukrainian forced still have to go to reach the Sea of Azov 

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The battle for Bakhmut

As Ukraine has been trying to widen the breach near Robotyne, Russia has been bringing reinforcements into the region - including some of its best trained soldiers that had previously been deployed elsewhere.

The UK Ministry of Defence says the redeployments of Russia's paratroop formations, known as the VDV, have probably weakened its defences around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which has endured some of the heaviest fighting of the war.

It has been under Russian control for several months but Ukraine has gained some ground in the surrounding areas and the MoD says Ukraine has now secured the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, about 8km (five miles) south of the city.

Map showing territorial control around Bakhmut and highlighting the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka

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Attacks on Crimea

Ukraine has also stepped up attacks on the Crimean peninsula in the past month - including a missile attack on the port of Sevastopol on 22 September which it says killed Russian 34 officers.

It initially claimed they included the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, but Moscow later released a video of Viktor Sokolov, which it said was filmed several days later.

That attack came just over a week after a major attack on the same city, which is the headquarters of the fleet, using cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France that is thought to have destroyed a ship and a submarine.

It also caused significant damage to the dry docks, which are vital for maintenance of the entire Black Sea fleet.

The next day Ukraine said it had succeeded in destroying a sophisticated Russian air defence system - the S-400 - on the peninsular.

Attacks in late August destroyed another S-400 and others knocked out Russian radar positions on offshore gas platforms.

Map showing locations of four recent significant attacks on Crimea

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Russia's Black Sea fleet is an important target for Kyiv - it is seen as the flagship unit of Russia's navy and its ships have launched missiles at Ukraine causing devastating damage.

It has also been threatening to block the Black Sea shipping routes that Ukraine has been using to export grain - which is a particular sticking point for Kyiv currently.

Location of Russia's Black Sea fleet HQ in Sevastopol

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Moscow pulled out of the internationally brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-July - guaranteeing safe passage of non-military vessels - arguing that Russia's own agricultural exporters were being disadvantaged.

Since Russia pulled out, only a handful of vessels, have been able to sail from Ukraine's Black Sea ports such as Odesa, with the first large grain shipment leaving Chornomorsk, just south of Odesa, this week and reaching Turkey on Friday.

Drone attacks on Danube ports

The UK's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) says 65% of Ukraine's grain exports are now going from the ports of Izmail and Reni, on the Danube. The grain is then transported by river and canals into the Black Sea, via the Romanian seaports of Sulina and Constanta.

In theory it is safer to go this way, as vessels entering the Black Sea from the mouth of the river immediately enter Romanian territorial waters.

Map showing ports of Izmail and Reni, on the Danube.
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But Russia has also been attacking Ukraine's Danube ports using drones.

Since the River Danube forms part of Ukraine's border with Nato, Russia's attacks have an added geopolitical dimension - at least one Russian drone has been filmed exploding across the river from Izmail, inside Romania.

More than a year of fighting

Russia's invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine before dawn on 24 February 2022.

Russian ground troops moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv.

Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.

Four maps showing how the situation has changed on the ground since Russia's invasion..

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But they hit very strong Ukrainian resistance almost everywhere and faced serious logistical problems with poorly motivated Russian troops suffering shortages of food, water and ammunition.

Ukrainian forces were also quick to deploy Western supplied arms such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, which proved highly effective against the Russian advance.

By October the picture had changed dramatically and having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north.

More than a year since the invasion, Ukraine is now hoping its latest counter-offensive can turn the war in its favour.

By David Brown, Bella Hurrell, Dominic Bailey, Mike Hills, Lucy Rodgers, Paul Sargeant, Alison Trowsdale, Tural Ahmedzade, Chris Clayton, Kady Wardell, Mark Bryson, Zoe Bartholomew, Sean Willmott, Sana Dionysiou, Joy Roxas, Gerry Fletcher, Jana Tauschinsk, Debie Loizou, Simon Martin and Prina Shah.

Ukraine war: Why Kyiv's Dnipro east bank gain could be significant

Ukrainian fighters on the frontline say troops have not only crossed into Russian occupied territory but held a position, apparently for the first time, on the fiercely defended east (or left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region.

The development is potentially significant. Ukraine's counteroffensive aims to slice through Russian occupied territory, severing a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula which Moscow annexed - illegally - in 2014. 

In a text exchange, the 46th brigade told the BBC that troops were engaged in heavy fighting as they try to take full control of the village of Krynky.

If successful, the force said, the settlement would give advanced units a base from which to launch a larger offensive aimed at dividing Russian troops and cutting off their supply lines.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukrainian forces were continuing larger than usual ground operations on the east bank and Russian military bloggers have also noted fighting in Krynky.

And the action is being closely scrutinised - success here would be seized upon by Ukraine's military chiefs. Their counteroffensive, launched in June, has made slow progress, with limited territorial gains.

But the fighters we spoke to acknowledged that, even if the troops were to take Krynky, a modern day "Normandy landings" style attack was unlikely.

And they gave us a glimpse of the dangers and challenges they face, particularly as winter approaches.

The 46th brigade is fighting further along the vast frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region with the same aim in mind - to cut off Russian access to the Crimean peninsula.

They told us they had just managed to partially breach the first line of Russian defence near the village of Verbove - and that they'd successfully targeted some ammunition depots and bases, but that progress was limited.

They described heavily mined Russian fortifications and daily air attacks on their logistics routes without, they complained, air support of their own.

Russian troops, they said, had been on the defensive but were now on the attack.

And, as winter approaches, conditions are deteriorating - for both sides.

Rainy weather is affecting the work of drones, reconnaissance equipment and aviation, the soldiers said. But they did not anticipate any let-up in the fighting.

"Winter will not be a time for respite," they said.

Additional reporting by Anastasiia Levchenko

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